The UK PM triggers Article 50, triggering a process that will require the UK to leave the European Union. However, she fails to gain a majority in the House of Commons and falls behind in the vote on the Withdrawal Agreement. In response, the DUP in Northern Ireland makes a deal with the Conservatives, ensuring that the PM stays in power. Meanwhile, the formal negotiations between the UK and EU begin. However, in the early stages of the process, rebel Tory MPs side with the Opposition, forcing the government to give MPs a guarantee on a vote on the final Brexit deal. When this occurs, the EU agrees to move to the second phase of the negotiations.
Article 50 Extension
The UK government has agreed to extend Article 50 until 30 June 2019. It will be an extended period of time that will ensure that the UK continues to be a member of the EU. During this time, the UK will have all its rights and obligations under Article 50 TEU. The EU expects the United Kingdom to behave responsibly and constructively during this time. It also expects the United Kingdom to meet its obligations under the withdrawal agreement. It will also have to ensure that it does not interfere in EU processes.
The extension will only be effective if the EU Council agrees to it. If the leaders do not reach an agreement, a no-deal Brexit could occur. Tusk, the president of the EU Council, has made it clear that no side should be humiliated during the Brexit process. He has said that officials have prepared a draft document for the leaders to consider. However, the document leaves blank space regarding the end date of the delay, indicating that there are many differences between the leaders.
Withdrawal Agreement Bill fails to pass second stage reading in the House of Commons
If the Withdrawal Agreement Bill (WAB) fails to pass second stage reading in the House, it could spell the end of the government’s Brexit plan. It could mean that the UK will be forced to call a general election, or it could mean that there will be no deal at all. This situation is especially dangerous for the government, as the withdrawal date of 31 October is a looming one.
As the government’s timetable was rejected, the Withdrawal Agreement Bill now faces an uncertain future. The government has decided to pause the Bill until the EU makes a decision on an extension. As this decision is expected before the end of October, the government has time to propose a new timetable.
Protocol on Ireland/Northern Ireland passed in the House of Lords
The House of Lords passed the Northern Ireland Protocol Bill on Monday evening, with no amendments. The government’s justification for the Bill has led to disquiet from both sides of the House. The Bill is bad news for trade and business in the north and will damage relations with the European Union and UK inward investment.
The government wants to renegotiate the protocol, but good faith is essential to any negotiation. But the European Union has said that it intends to take legal action against Britain if it refuses to comply with its terms. In addition, the bill will face opposition from moderate tory mps in the House of Lords, which will raise doubts over its viability.
Daniel is a political analyst and writer specialising in EU policies, governance structures, and diplomatic relations within the bloc.